[Global Times reporter Wang Wenwen] Senior Australian diplomat John Rand recently published an article titled “The United States is not preparing to go to war with China, but is preparing to let Australia go to war with China” on an Australian domestic political website. reflection. Rand’s diplomatic career has witnessed the ups and downs in the 50 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Australia. He started working in the Australian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the early 1970s, was stationed in China, and served as the head of the China-related department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for three times. On February 7, Rand said in an interview with a reporter from the “Global Times” that Australia’s participation in the war against China as an agent of the United States would definitely not do any good. Viewpoints are all to serve Australia’s national interests.
In order to maintain its hegemonic status, the United States has used all means including military means to maintain its position as the number one in the world. The United States has made clear in numerous statements that it will not engage directly with either of its main adversaries, Russia and China, both nuclear-weapon states. Thus, the US will wage war against Russia and China through proxies. The United States developed Australia as a proxy against China, and Australia agreed. As the previous government said, “If Taiwan is attacked, Australia will defend Taiwan”. This shows that we have accepted the US plan to involve Australia in the war, especially in such a way that the US continues to pretend that it is not actually involved in the war.
RAND: The Ukraine crisis clearly shows that the United States is prepared to pursue its own interests at the expense of so-called “allies.” The obvious lesson is that we don’t allow ourselves to be used as proxies. There is absolutely no benefit to Australia participating in the war against China as a proxy of the United States. But at present, there is no one in the ruling elite of our government who is willing to say “no” to the United States. There are many reasons, including historical ones. Most Australian politicians in power are still afraid that the possible influence of the United States on Australia will cause them to step down. The US is very good at conducting regime change operations around the world. If Australia were to rebel against the US, it would also become unstable.
AUKUS has no written document, it’s not an agreement, it’s not a treaty. It has not been scrutinized by Parliament or the people and has never been voted on. It was a sort of “gentleman’s agreement” between the Prime Minister of the UK, the President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Australia, if you can call them gentlemen. In fact, Australia’s legal instrument for transferring sovereignty to the United States is the “Force Posture Agreement” signed by the United States and Australia in 2014. It shows very clearly that the military bases in northern Australia are all under the control of the United States. Whether it is equipment or personnel, as long as they are located in these bases, they are under the complete and unchallenged power control of the United States. Australia has absolutely no say in how, when or why these military installations are used, leading the most sane observers of the Force Posture Agreement to assume that if the US went to war with China, Australia would inevitably be drawn into it. Similarly, under the vague veil of AUKUS, the US military will be completely “swapped” with the Australian Defense Forces, especially since US military personnel have already participated in our national defense decision-making and the command of the Defense Forces. The militarization (deployment) of northern Australia is actually to ensure that Australia goes to war with China at some point in the near future, while the US can stand aside and say they are not directly involved. The United States will throw more and more weapons and ammunition to “help” us, but say that it is not in the war. I think this is the most likely scenario.
The United States has never regarded the “ANZUS Security Treaty” signed with Australia and New Zealand as a guarantee that the United States will actively defend Australia under any circumstances. The ANZUS Security Treaty only stipulates that we consult with the United States on the best way to assist Australia’s defense, that is, Australia must defend itself. However, almost without exception, successive Australian governments have regarded the treaty as a guarantee of their own security and regarded it as a “psychological security blanket”. We are desperate to hold on to this “security blanket”, thereby creating an opportunity for the US to turn Australia into its forward military base in the Indo-Pacific region.
For Australia, it is extremely difficult to take a step back from the existing Australia-US relationship. The US will not allow us to go away, and no successive Australian government has had the political courage to end the Force Posture Agreement. For the government to change its current (diplomatic) direction, it will take years of active opposition from the Australian people.
Australia is caught in many paradoxes. Australia is still talking about “must go to war with China to protect our trade with China”, which is absurd. The irony is that Australia can only buy nuclear powered submarines from the US if it continues to make huge profits from China – Australia’s budget is heavily dependent on our trade revenue with China.